How to use this tool
Start with the default example, then replace each number with your own scenario. The result card is designed to be copied into a journal or saved with the downloadable checklist.
Reviewed/updated 2026-07-31
Educational use only
Transparent formulas
No live prices or individualized advice
Probability Versus Expectancy Calculator
Enter hypothetical assumptions that match your trade plan. The output is educational contract math and scenario analysis only. Change one input at a time so you can see which assumption drives the result.
Probability Versus Expectancy Calculator
Run the numbers with your own assumptions
Compare probability, average gain, average loss, maximum gain, maximum loss, costs, and trade count so the attractive percentage gets translated into expectancy.
Public formula: Expected value = probability x average gain - failure probability x average loss - transaction costs.
Printable result workflow
After calculating, copy the result card or download the checklist. Save the inputs with your trade journal so future reviews compare planned risk with actual behavior.
Optional next step
Join the Free Options Formula Trading Lab
Get the options process in one place: structured trade ideas, research tools, calculators, education, market context, and support from traders focused on defined-risk setups.
No hype, no promises of wins, and no pretending every setup works. The free group is built to help you make every trade a clear decision instead of a reaction.
- Defined-risk options education and structured trade ideas
- Strike prices, expirations, suggested entries, profit targets, and exit planning
- Market updates, practical analysis, trading research, and a live trade tracker
- Community access to tools including Insider Edge, the Custom AI Trade Analyzer, and an advanced options calculator
Optional related resources
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